Over the last 40 years, scenario planning has emerged as a leading strategic tool: a proven way to make flexible long-term plans and manage future uncertainties.
Scenario planning helps us both adapt to future changes and proactively shape the future we want. It is also a critical tool to improve our decisions in the present, because this process expands our perspective, identifies new opportunities, and can overcome our collective and individual blind spots— especially to key game-changers, which often challenge our assumptions and beliefs.
It is important to remember that scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are alternative stories of the future; they depict how current events and trends could play out over time. Good scenarios include both the expected and unexpected, as well conventional and unconventional thinking. In order for them to be useful, scenarios must be plausible, relevant and challenging; they also need to diverge enough to cover the range of possible futures that we may have to live in.
This week we visit Ostrich Scenario Planning